GMA’s promise of 6-10 M jobs a sick joke on workers — 6 M unemployed in 2010

The current crisis brought by the hostage taking of Angelo dela Cruz has brought to the fore the stark realities of the worsening unemployment that has been griping the country for many years now. And like their handling of the crisis in Iraq , government’s efforts in addressing the unemployment crisis remains wanting.

In her inaugural speech, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo promised to create at least six million, possibly 10 million jobs in the next six years. Obviously, such numbers were intended to impress. But a study done by the Labor Education and Research Network (LEARN) clearly shows that the President’s promise is at best all sound bite and no substance. At worst, it’s a sick joke played on Filipino workers.

What the President’s promise actually means is that creating only six million jobs over the next six years will leave over six million Filipinos unemployed at the end of the President’s term! And will raise the unemployment rate to a record high 14% in 2010.

In the last three years, the labor force has grown by 3.5% per year. If in the next six years it continues to grow at this pace, the labor force will expand to 43 million in 2010, from 35 million today—an increase of eight million workers. But since only six million jobs will be generated, two million workers will be added the ranks of the unemployed.

That will increase the number of jobless Filipinos to six million in six years, from four million today (the average for the period July 2003-April 2004). A staggering 14% unemployment rate by the end of PGMA’s term, compared with 12% in the previous four quarters. Surely not a legacy the President can be proud of.

Six million jobs in six years is hardly an ambitious goal. That’s the same one million jobs a year the Arroyo Administration claims to have done it in its first three years in office - exactly where and what kind of jobs was actually generated is not clear. Between 2001 and 2004, the economy is reported to have created more than three million jobs, but at the same time unemployment rose to 4.2 million or 12% in the last four quarters, from 3.6 million or 11% in 2000! Simply put, a million jobs a year was not enough.

So should the President aim for 10 million jobs? A little number crunching will show that generating “possibly 10 million jobs” is next to impossible. To do so, the economy must grow 7% each year for the next six years, after already expanding 5% in the last six years. That would divert from past boom-bust trends of the economy. But to truly break from the past requires a departure from the failed economic policies of the past. It calls for CHANGE -- not continuity -- IN ECONOMIC STRATEGY. Based on her 10-point program, this is farthest from the President’s mind.

Without a shift in strategy, the economy faces rough sailing in the next six years. The unresolved fiscal crisis, which amazingly has proved resistant to growth, threatens to put an end to the current growth cycle. A slowdown will undermine the government’s modest – if grossly inadequate – goal of six million jobs, let alone its fighting target of 10 million jobs. Without a change in economic policies, President Arroyo’s promises are bound to be broken. Again!

Daniel L. Edralin
Chairperson
Alliance of Progressive Labor (APL)